Happy As A Skunk In A Whirlwind

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Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.

A bar graph can change minds

Americans widely back increasing the money spent on defense—unless they’re told how much money already goes to it.

This finding comes from YouGov, which conducted a survey experiment on federal funding. Of the 1,149 Americans it surveyed, half were shown a breakdown of the 2025 federal budget, while the other half weren’t. Then YouGov asked whether various departments should receive more, less, or the same amount of funding.

Among those who did not see the budget, 36% supported increased spending on defense. However, among those who did see the breakdown, only 18% felt the same way.

Clearly, seeing how much of the budget already goes to the Pentagon changed minds.

The second-largest difference came on education spending. Among those who saw that department’s sliver of the budget, support for increased spending was 57%, while among those who did not see the budget, it was just 47%.

Still, Defense stood out—and it’s easy to see why.

While most people want a strong national defense, many don’t realize it already dominates discretionary spending. The Pentagon’s annual budget exceeds $800 billion, while the Education Department’s budget is about a tenth of that. Meanwhile, the White House wants to slash nondefense spending by 23% going into the next fiscal year.

So when people say they want more for defense, it’s often because they don’t recognize how much we already allocate to it. But when they see the numbers, support is lower.

You see a similar pattern with foreign aid. Polls consistently show that Americans believe the U.S. spends roughly 30% of its budget on foreign aid. In reality, it’s about 1%. And polls show that seeing the true figure changes minds. For example, when KFF informed respondents of the real amount spent on foreign aid, the share who said the U.S. was spending “too much” on aid dropped by over 20 percentage points.

This is how public opinion gets shaped: not just by values, but also by assumptions. Most Americans don’t despise foreign aid or desire endless military spending. Instead, they’re reacting to a budget they imagine, not the one we have.

Turns out, seeing a bar graph can make a big difference.

Are Americans turning on the GOP?

The tide may be turning: Recent polling suggests Americans could now have a more favorable view of congressional Democrats than Republicans.

From the beginning of December through the end of March, the net favorability of each party’s Congress members was never more than 2 points apart, according to data from Morning Consult. In general, both party’s lawmakers were seen in a similarly negative light.

However, in early April, things began to open up. Shortly after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs” took effect, Democrats ran up their widest net-favorability lead (7 points) over Republicans since November and were viewed for the first time since last year’s election as net favorable, meaning a higher share of voters saw them positively than did negatively.

Additionally, from April to now, Democrats’ net favorability has been over 3 points higher on average, compared with it being less than 1 point higher on average between December and the end of March.

In other words, the deadlock may—emphasis on may—be breaking.

The latest survey, fielded between May 30 and June 2, shows that 46% of registered voters now have a favorable opinion of congressional Democrats, compared to 45% who view them unfavorably. Meanwhile, Republicans are facing challenges: 44% of voters see them positively, while 48% see them negatively.

These may seem like modest differences, but the gap has grown more consistent. Democrats also lead on the generic congressional ballot, which asks whether people would back the Democrat or the Republican for their local House district if the election were held today. Add these data points up and they seem to indicate that voters are turning on the GOP’s trifecta in Washington.

One reason for the shift might be Trump’s tariff agenda, which Americans hate and which Republican lawmakers generally refuse to criticize. Another could be that the Republican Party is embroiled in a public dispute over whether to support Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a massive, unpopular package that would cut food assistance, strip health insurance from millions, and risk wrecking the U.S. economy.

Instead of tackling voter concerns about the bill, Republicans are bullying former President Joe Biden for some reason, while they also rally around Trump, who remains unpopular in Morning Consult’s polling. Forty-six percent of voters view him favorably, while 51% view him unfavorably. Heck, even Elon Musk is openly criticizing the bill.

For now, Democrats seem to be benefiting from this contrast. So, yes, it’s a positive start, but now the question is whether Democrats can sustain this momentum and carry it into 2026.

Republicans have soured on green energy

While wind and solar power remain broadly popular, support for these energy sources has slipped since Trump’s first term, driven by a sharp decline among Republicans and GOP-leaning voters, according to new data from the Pew Research Center.

Since 2020, Republican support for expanding solar has dropped from 84% to 61%, and for wind power from 75% to just 48%.

Pew’s findings are especially striking on energy priorities. In 2020, 65% of Republicans said the U.S. should focus on expanding wind and solar power rather than oil, coal, and natural gas. Now, though, 67% say the country should prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.

The shift comes as Republicans in Congress consider speeding up approvals for oil and gas projects and slashing incentives for green energy. At the same time, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin has worked to weaken the agency and promote climate denialism from within.

Younger Republicans remain more supportive of wind and solar than their older counterparts—a trend seen across party lines—but even their support is slipping. Just 51% of Republicans ages 18 to 29 now say renewable energy should be the priority, down 16 points from last year.

Democrats, by contrast, still overwhelmingly back renewable energy. According to the poll, 91% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters favor more solar power, and 87% support more wind. These numbers have barely changed since Trump’s first term. And consistent with those views, 86% of Democrats say the U.S. should prioritize renewable development over fossil fuels.

Whether Republicans’ shifting attitudes reflect genuine policy preference, partisan signaling, or backlash to climate-focused regulations, the result is a party pivoting away from the broad, cross-partisan consensus that existed just a few years ago.

Any updates?

• Whom do Democrats want to lead their party? The answer isn’t clear, and that might be good news for a party in flux. A new YouGov/The Economist poll shows Democrats are split: Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied for first place, with each earning 21% support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the only other figure to crack double digits, at 10%. Yes, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on the list, but she pulled just 9%, a bit lower than in other polls.

• The Trump administration’s proposed budget would slash all funding for specialized services that support LGBTQ+ youth through the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline—but voters aren’t having it. A new Data for Progress poll finds that 69% of likely voters want to keep these services intact, compared with just 23% who support the cuts. The opposition is bipartisan—perhaps a reflection of shifting views within the GOP on issues like same-sex marriage—with 56% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats backing continued funding.

Vibe check

According to Civiqs, the percentage of registered voters who believe the economy is getting worse is largely the same as it was in the days after Trump’s announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs rollout (53% on April 2 and 52% on Friday)—but more people say the economy is improving: up from 31% on April 2 to 35% on Friday.

Of course, it’s Republicans who are driving that optimism—71% now say the economy is improving, compared with only 3% of Democrats who say the same. However, that could be more about perception than reality, especially since Trump’s tariffs are only just starting to shake up the job market.

Still, you can’t blame people for hoping. A Gallup poll conducted in early April found that 38% of Americans expected economic growth over the next six months, while 48% thought it would decline. Optimism may be slipping, but it hasn’t disappeared.

It might all be wishful thinking—especially if Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” becomes law—but for now, people are still holding on to hope.

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https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/6/8/2326358/-Memo-to-Democrats-America-needs-you-to-mock-the-Musk-Trump-breakup?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

President Donald Trump and multibillionaire Elon Musk are involved in a very public breakup resulting from Musk’s criticism of Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.”

The schism between the two figures pits a racist billionaire against a right-wing president with his own racism and corruption issues, along with a heavy dose of wannabe dictator goals. And, according to a YouGov poll released Thursday, the majority of Americans—52%—want neither of them to win.

But some Democratic officials are being wet blankets about the fun being made at the expense of Musk and Trump.

“When 15 million Americans lose their health care and plunge into personal crisis, none of them are going to give a shit about a made-for-clicks twitter fight between two billionaires arguing about who gets the bigger share of the corruption spoils,” Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut wrote on Bluesky.

Rep. Jonathan Jackson of Illinois sounded a similar note, writing on Bluesky that “Trump and Elon’s breakup is a distraction.”

But the two apparently well-meaning members of Congress aren’t reading the room well at all.

Yes, the slap fight between Musk and Trump is clownish and more akin to a high school lunchroom—or reality TV—than a White House proceeding, but that’s the point. Thanks to Trump and his GOP allies, this low level of behavior, straight out of the “Mean Girls” playbook, is on display for the entire world to see.

It’s a teachable, mockable moment that undermines the legislation that triggered the meltdown in the first place. 

A quick glance at sources like Google’s trending topics shows enormous interest in the fight. That presents an opportunity to then inform voters about the harm that the bill will do—cutting health care from millions—and the childish lawmakers who support it.

Mocking the fight between Trump and Musk is a win-win situation. Fortunately, a lot of Democrats across the party’s big ideological tent seem to get it. With varying degrees of success, Democrats in key leadership positions are mocking the meltdown.

At the highest level of the party, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted a popcorn emoji alongside a screenshot of one of Musk’s pouty tweets about Trump.

In a conversation with reporters, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York laughed at the fight, saying that “the girls are fighting, aren’t they?”

“You know, when I first got into politics, men would always tell me that WOMEN were too emotional to lead,” Sen. Patty Murray of Washington wrote on Bluesky. 

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota also dunked on the divorcees, writing, “Too bad there wasn’t a prenup…”

And Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas compared the GOP spectacle to trashy daytime television, while Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon said the fight was what happens “when the unelected billionaire who bought you the White House is going nuclear on Twitter…”

The mockery, echoing the public’s distaste for both Musk and Trump, is the kind of pile-on that Democrats have needed since Trump won the 2024 election. The party has been repeatedly fumbling for a response and a way to break through to the public that doesn’t follow day-to-day political developments.

And this is a way in. 

Figures like Trump and Musk rely on a faux machismo public image to accomplish their mission of undermining democracy and the social safety net. Fights like this—and the derision they attract—are an excellent way of revealing their vulnerabilities.

That’s why the right’s defenders and propagandists at outlets like Fox News got so upset when Democrats raised the issue of “TACO,” the Wall Street sentiment that “Trump Always Chickens Out” on his tariffs.

History has shown that this is the way to undermine and ultimately defeat would-be strongmen. As the world began to confront the rise of fascism in the 1930s and 1940s with Adolf Hitler, comic icon Charlie Chaplin lampooned Hitler’s absurdity in the classic film “The Great Dictator.”

After the United States entered the war, Disney produced the cartoon “Der Fuhrer’s Face,” highlighting the ridiculousness of fascism and Hitler—including Donald Duck throwing a tomato at Hitler’s face and mocking the notion of Nazis self-image of a “master race.”

Serious times require humor, satire, and mockery. Not everything can be a sober policy response hitting legitimate facts and figures. That would work in an ideal world, but the real world is intrigued by spectacle, mess, and drama.

It’s notable that the Musk-Trump breakup has largely unified Democrats in pointing to their track record of malfeasance. 

Now isn’t the time to pull back and hope for the perfect moment. It’s the time to pile on more and more mockery to stop their odious agenda and to protect Americans that the GOP is dead set on harming. 

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https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/6/8/2326240/-Cartoon-Enjoy-your-tax-cut?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

A cartoon by Clay Bennett.

Related | Here's how Senate Democrats will try to stop Trump's horrific tax bill

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https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/6/8/2326394/-Supreme-Court-couldn-t-let-the-week-go-by-without-some-treats-for-Trump?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

Donald Trump’s buddies, the conservative majority at the Supreme Court, did him a solid times two late Friday afternoon.

In a pair of orders, the Court held that the Department of Government Efficiency can rummage through your Social Security data. They also held that DOGE is not even obliged to explain what type of entity it is, but whatever it is, it now has your data.

Up first, DOGE gets your SSA data. When the baby-faced goblins in DOGE first tried to get SSA data, two labor unions and the Alliance for Retired Americans sued to stop it. The lower court issued a preliminary injunction blocking their access, and the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals declined the administration’s request to overturn that and allow Elon Musk’s now-former minions to begin hoovering up your bank info, even as litigation continues. 

Enter the Supreme Court. In a completely fact-free two-page decision, the majority said that DOGE can have the data. 

It’s not a joke to say it’s fact-free. The majority first lays out the four factors that warrant staying a lower court’s order, and then literally just says, “After review, we determine that the application of these factors in this case warrants granting the requested stay.” No, you can’t see what any of the review is. Just trust them. 

Related | Your private data is up for grabs thanks to Trump

So you can thank Chief Justice John Roberts and friends for ensuring that people like “Big Balls” and other twentysomething racists can rummage around in your private data. And the DOGE kids aren’t exactly great at cybersecurity. They’ve connected unauthorized outside servers to government networks and built a website, DOGE.gov, so insecure that people immediately figured out how to post updates to the site. There’s also pretty credible evidence that DOGE personnel have already exfiltrated government data. 

But hey, why should all that matter in the face of DOGE not wanting to wait one moment longer before doing whatever it is they want to do with your data? Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s dissent points out that the only “urgency” here is that the government cannot be bothered to wait for the litigation process to play out.

The way the Court justifies these huge shadow docket rulings is that these are simply rulings lifting stays. Theoretically, they could decide differently once the case is fully litigated and rule that DOGE is not entitled to SSA data. Except by that point, DOGE already has your data. 

Oh, and although DOGE is getting access to sensitive private data for every American citizen, they don’t even have to explain to the American people what they are. 

The administration has been refusing to answer discovery in a case about whether DOGE is subject to the Freedom of Information Act. No, not refusing to provide material subject to FOIA, but refusing to explain what they even are, so a judge could determine whether they are the type of government entity subject to FOIA. When Solicitor General John Sauer raced to the Supreme Court to block this, he said that being required to provide material showing what DOGE is “offends the separation of powers” and would stop presidential advisors from providing candid advice. 

In another fact-free order, this one even less than two pages, the conservative majority agreed, saying that “separation of powers concerns counsel judicial deference in the context of discovery regarding internal Executive Branch communications.” 

This is, to put it mildly, absurd. The administration can’t just create an entity that is functionally overseeing the wholesale destruction of government and then say that the courts can’t possibly inquire into what the nature of that entity is. But that’s pretty much exactly what the Court is letting them do.

You likely are confused as to why DOGE is enough of a government entity to get all your private data, but not enough of a government entity to have to explain what it is, but that is only because you do not have a big brain like the conservative justices. Those big brains have no trouble believing both those things at the same time, even though they contradict one another. 

Here’s the big secret as to why: they like what Trump is doing and they want him to succeed, and they don’t care if they trash every last bit of credibility they have. There’s really no other explanation for their constant willingness to give in to the administration’s demands. The lower courts continue to follow the rule of law, a result that almost always leads to the administration losing, because their actions are lawless. 

However, the Court’s conservative majority is routinely signaling that if the administration wants to do something, they’ll figure out a way. Just say something is urgent, or it impinges on the authority of the executive, or whatever fig leaf they want to offer. The majority will rush to give Trump all the power he needs, even if it means limiting their own. 

Separation of powers doesn’t really work if one branch has all the power, but until the conservative justices care, Trump’s authority will keep expanding.

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